Round 2 of the AFL International Cup gets underway today with all matches again at Royal Park, except for a one off at Linen House Centre, Seaford, hosted by St Kilda Football Club through their relationship with New Zealand footy.  The forecast is for a maximum of 14 degrees Celsius and a shower or two.

In the Men's there's some crucial games in terms of deciding who will make the top 4 semi-finals.  USA vs Canada is huge, with the winner in contention for top spot in Pool C and outright entry to the semis, with the loser hoping to scrape in via 4th spot in the overall standings.  Given their history you can't sensibly tip against the Revolution.

Perhaps less huge and more scary is the slightly built Indonesia side up against Fiji.  Nauru should prove too strong for Great Britain to stay in contention for Pool A honours.  Ireland will look to boost their percentage against France and Japan will be keen to show that whilst off the pace of the top teams they are still well above the new-comers, in this case Pakistan.

South Africa versus Tonga should be an absolute cracker and deserving of a good crowd.  The Lions need to win but will have to withstand a fast and furious Thunder.  South Africa by a modest margin.  Not so modest will be PNG over India - this could be one for the record books if the Mozzies have a taste for blood.  Let's hope the margin stays under 300 points.  The same will be true of New Zealand against China at Seaford.

And finally Sweden versus Finland might tell us whether the Elks' opening round was an aberration or whether this year's squad perhaps falls short of Sweden's best.

In the Women's the US Freedom have their pride on the line, not wanting to lose to Canada's development squad the Midnight Suns.  The US Liberty (US development squad) get their first match, a tough one against Canada's Northern Lights.  Ireland should dominate Tonga in the other match.

Overall a far more enticing round of footy than the opening day, and by the end of the round we should have separated out a few of the contenders in the upper end of the Men's tournament. ...

Fiji today ran out to a 208-point victory over newcomers Indonesia.

Indonesia had a tough initiation to International Cup footy on Sunday against the Nauru Chiefs, but had fought out that game despite the odds, to notch an elusive goal. The task today on Ransford Oval was to take on Fiji and with a 3 day break it’s all part of a very steep learning curve.

The challenge for Fiji was to maintain their focus and not develop bad habits. The coaches reinforced the message to keep it simple, 1 handball, 1 kick – old fashioned footy in some respects. It was too easy at times to lairise and perhaps the main criticism of Fiji today was a little show of contempt for the opposition by playing on too often when marking within range where a set shot was called for.

This small display of over confidence did result in many of the micro victories that the Garudas would focus on as positives. They continued to harass and tackle and their rewards were the free kicks earned.

For Fiji, Vatutuei (#2) enjoyed the chance to run and carry and displayed his poise with a couple of running left foot goals that showed a touch of class. WFN’s own Dylan Wolfgramm showed his class but as with a number of players perhaps tried to hold something in reserve for future contests.

For the Indonesian coaching panel the task was to focus on the positives and while they didn’t register a score, the squad maintained a positive attitude and drew respect from their opponents for constantly getting back up, never giving in and keeping a smile on their faces. The Garuda's persisted and were able to push deep forward but clearly lack height up forward finding it pretty difficult to transition from the backline. With a little luck they might have hit the scoreboard but not today.

As bad as the scoreboard was – the footy education continues and the camaraderie on display between the sides after the final siren was a credit to both teams and showed the true spirit of the International Cup. For many of the Garudas the footy education is only part of the equation as they experience a culture shock where – for example – many are experiencing western toilets for the first time.

New Zealand played in another massive mismatch today against the China Dragons winning 28.26 (194) to 0.0 (0). Having also run up a cricket score against the Sweden Elks on Sunday whilst also holding their opposition to no score the Hawks defence has seen little work thus far.

Today's game was played at the Linen House Oval in Seaford, the training base for the St Kilda Saints.  There was a crowd of over 250 there with many local schoolchildren.

The Hawks kicked 7 goals a quarter (each quarter 17.5 minutes). The Hawks had 54 scoring shots in 70 minutes so it is very little surprise that the ball hardly ever went into the Dragon's 50.

The first quarter saw the Hawks start into the breeze and big Chris Mundell and St Kilda's international rookie Joe Baker-Thomas were unstoppable with only their accuracy letting them down. In fact that was the story for the day as had they kicked straight it would have been a monstrous score.

Having met Baker-Thomas in Wellington when he was first rookie listed the shy, skinny boy has certainly grown into an extremely powerful athlete.

China certainly kept their heads up being mindful of the basics such as putting their head over the ball, tackling hard when not in possession and using the ball with some skill on the odd occasion when they had any time or space.

The Kiwis did all you would ask other than convert accurately. They ran to space well, shared the ball and showed good skill execution. I would think most of the crowd would have left thinking the Kiwis play footy that is indistinguishable from local Australian teams. They are extremely fit and have plenty of size about them with plenty of builds that look like AFL footballers.

Better players for China were Zhushen Chen, Hao Zhang, Mingjie Deng, Yifeng Zheng, Shaoliang Chen and Fan Yang.

Players to stand out for the Kiwis were Tim Morton who snagged 9 goals, tall forward Chris Mundell, athletic blonde ruck man Ty Smith, captain Andrew Howison, hard working small forward Logan Toomer and 19 year old Cantabrian Levi Inglis.

Goals scorers for the Hawks were: Tim Morton 9, Chris Mundell, Levi Inglis 3, Joe Baker-Thomas, Justin Clark, Logan Toomer 2, Will Gregson, Mike Gregson, Jay Johnson, Sam McKenzie, Matt Van Wijk, Dan Benny and Ernie Christensen 1 each.

China will look forward to finally having a winnable game against Finland in Ballarat on Saturday whilst New Zealand will head to Montrose to face the U.S.A who survived a very tough game today against Canada in one of the games of the tournament thus far. This game will decide how far both teams will progress in the tournament.
 

New Zealand: 7.6 14.15 21 19 28.25 (193)

China: 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0)

Goals

New Zealand: Morton 9, Mundell 3, Inglis 3, Toomer 2, Clark 2, Baker-Thomas 2, M. Gregson, W.Gregson, Christensen, Johnson, McKenzie, Benny, Van Wijk

China:

Best players

New Zealand: Howison, Morton, Smith, Mundel, Inglis, Toomer

China: Z. Chen, Zhang, Deng, Zheng, S. Chen, F. Yang

...

A chilly morning at Ransford Oval saw the United States Freedom redeem their loss to Canadian Northern Lights, coming out with a much stronger performance against the Canadian reserves side; the Midnight Suns.

The Freedom started the match strongly, dominating with #21 Hallie Lee winning all of the hit-outs in the centre. The Freedom capitalised on those hit-outs, going in to the first quarter break with three unreturned goals. The scoreboard read the United States leading 3.2 (20) to Canada 0.0 (0). 

The second quarter was tighter, with the Americans kicking the first goal of the quarter, but the Canadians returning fire to finish the quarter with a goal apiece. The Canadians also scored a behind to win the quarter, although they still trailed at the main break 1.1 (7) to 4.2 (26).

The Americans came out firing after the half, kicking three goals to none in the third quarter and keeping the Canadians scoreless. The Freedom had eight scoring shots to none but were wasteful in front of goal. The score at the final change had the Yanks leading 7.7 (49) to 1.1 (7).

The sting had already gone from the match by the final quarter, but the Canadians put up a gallant fight. The Freedom finished off the match with two more unreturned goals and enjoyed a well-deserved victory.

#1 Alexa Blatnick and #5 Holly Teufal were on fire for Freedom, while #7 Justine Stevens and #11 Holly Carlson performed well for the Suns. Captain and bigfooty celebrity Renee Tong was also a standout, laying many tackles and bringing down girls twice her size.

Freedom 3.2 4.2 7.7 9.10 (64)
Midnight Suns 0.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 (8)

Goals

Freedom: Lindsey Kastanek 2, Cathy Hoha 2, Sara Edwards-Rohner, Julie Marks, Bretta Brower, Holly Teufal.

Midnight Suns: Alanna Fenton
 

Best players

USA Freedom: Edwards-Rohner, Lee, Brower, Kastanek, Teufal

Canada Midnight Suns: Stevens, Shannon, Fernandez, Tong, De Silva, Beaudin ...

The Canadian Northern Lights continued their march towards another Grand Final appearance, easily accounting for the United States reserves side; the Liberty.

The Canadians came in as heavy favourites to beat the Liberty after having just convincingly defeated the Freedom earlier in the week. The opening quarter showed that the favourites tag was definitely deserved, kicking six goals to none. The quarter time score showed Canada leading 6.2 (38) to 0.0 (0).

Despite this being the first match of the tournament for the Liberty, Canada did not show any mercy, adding on another three unanswered goals in the second quarter. The Lights went into the main break with a score of 9.6 (60) to 0.0 (0).

The Canadians had clearly been told to play on at all costs and it was working for them. Despite the occasional hiccup, the constant speed could not be matched by the Liberty. This speed helped to pile on another six goals to none in the third term, bringing the score to 15.9 (99) to 0.0 (0) at the final break.

The final quarter ran a similar course to the rest of the match, with the Lights kicking four unanswered goals to bring the final margin to 125. The margin was within three points of the women’s International Cup record of 128-point margin set by Ireland in 2011. 19 goals also equalled the most goals kicked in a match.

Every single Canadian girl played close to a flawless game, but Aimee Legault, Kirsten Bodashefsky, Hilary Perry and Candace Kwan were still major standouts. The Lights had many goal kickers including Bodashefsky and Jen Nicholls who both scored multiple goals. Lissa Reggets was a highlight for the Liberty and one to watch in future Liberty games.

The Liberty may have left the field without a score, but they still left in high spirits and to the loud applause of their fans.

Canada Northern Lights: 6.2 9.6 15.9 19.11.(125)
United States Liberty: 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0)

Goals

Canada Northern Lights: Fluit 3, Arnold 3, Legault 2, Perry 2, Nicholls 2, Hickey 2, Bodashefsky 2, Costanza, Dickinson, Walshe

USA Liberty:

Best players

Canada Northern Lights: Perry, Bodashefsky, Arnold, Dickinson, Hickey, Smith

USA Liberty: Regets, Georgiadis, Castillo, McNabb ...

WFN World Rankings post Round 2 IC14

The Round 2 matches again played out as the Ranking Scheme predicted, that is, each higher ranked country prevailed over its lower ranked opponent. Three of the nine matches had a +/- 10.00 rating gap and although each of these matches resulted in 100+ point wins no advantage was gained by the higher ranked nation and no loss by the defeated nation.

WFN World Rankings 13th August 2014.

Provisional Nations:

Indonesia 37.00 2 games played
Pakistan 36.56 2 games played
Iceland 35.64 4 games played
Timor Leste 27.40 6 games played

Dormant Nation* over Five (5) years since last played an International.
Samoa* 41.85 18 games played ...

WFN Women’s World Rankings post Round 2 IC14

A World Ranking Scheme as applied to the 21 Women’s International Tests/Matches played at the completion of Round 2 International Cup 2014 would look like:

1. Australia
2. Canada  48.13 10 matches played*
3. USA  40.24 10 matches played*

Provisional:
Ireland 49.65 7 matches played#
Canada 2 Midnight Suns 40.00 2 matches played#
Fiji 39.72 1 match played#
USA 2 Liberty 38.47 1 match Played#
Tonga 37.00 2 matches played#
PNG 33.51 5 matches played#
AIM@ 33.29 4 matches played#

Three 49th Parallel Cup matches since 2010 and International Cup matches*

International Cup matches#

Australian Indigenous & Multicultural@

Note: Ireland will become fully Ranked when they play United States 2 Liberty on Saturday 16th August 2014.

  ...

The ladders are now taking shape after Round 2 of the 2014 AFL International Cup and with just 1 round remaining before breaking into divisions we can begin to see who is in contention for the coveted Men's semi-finals and a chance to play on the MCG in the Grand Final.

The Women's is straight forward but the Men are divided into 3 pools, with the complication being that the top 4 that go through to the semi-finals after 3 rounds are the top of each pool and then the next best based on combining all the teams - hence we've also shown a Combined ladder.  That will also determine the teams that make what the AFL has called Division 1, i.e. teams 5 - 12, and Division 2, i.e. teams 13 to 18.

There are, as always, some bizarre percentages, due to lopsides matches and not in a small way because we've stuck to the AFL / Victorian way of calculating percentage, which is now spreading throughout Australian football  throughout the world, namely points for divided by points against multipled by 100, rather than the conventional maths of for divided by (for plus against) multipled by 100.  So the % means per 100 points scored by the opposition, not per 100 points of the total scores.  As such New Zealand, on 355 for, 0 against, have a percentage that is infinite or undefined.

The Women's is straight forward but the Men are divided into 3 pools, with the complication being that the top 4 that go through to the semi-finals after 3 rounds are the top of each pool and then the next best based on combining all the teams - hence we've also shown a Combined ladder. That will also determine the teams that make what the AFL has called Division 1, i.e. teams 5 - 12, and Division 2, i.e. teams 13 to 18.

Percentage has been calculated as per the AFL way, namely points for divided by points against multipled by 100. This produces strange values with the many lopsided results so far, but we've decided to stay with this since ultimately the AFL will show the ladders the same way. As such at the completion of round 2 New Zealand technically have 355 for divided by 0 against which is infinite or undefined.

* Note the ladders are WFN's unofficial calculations. ...

Who will grab fourth spot and go through to the semi-finals of the 2014 AFL International Cup?  It's almost impossible to call.

First up, who will the other 3 be?  Our understanding of the AFL's rules for IC14 are that the top team in each pool at the end of Round 3 will go through.  As you can see on the ladders (Ladders after Round 2) there's six nations still in contention.  Ireland and Nauru, PNG and South Africa, New Zealand and USA are all on 2 wins 0 losses.  Each pair are drawn to play each other in Round 3 (Community Round).  This doesn't seem likely to be a coincidence.  Unless there's a draw there will be one team sitting on top of each pool on 3 wins 0 losses.  They go through.

If the matches go on historical form that means Ireland, New Zealand and PNG.

Then the pools are combined to determine 4th spot - the last semi-final position.  We've crunched some numbers and come up with some fascinating possibilites, with Nauru, South Africa and the USA all obvious candidates, but Tonga, Fiji, Canada and Great Britain all in with big chances too.  That's even tighter than the AFL's run to this year's finals.

Consider this realistic scenario (and using similar margins for want of a better estimate).

Ireland defeat Nauru 85 to 40.
PNG defeat South Africa 80 to 40.
New Zealand defeat USA 80 to 40.
Canada defeat Sweden 110 to 40.
Tonga defeat Japan 120 to 40.
Fiji defeat GB 50 to 40.  Or GB defeat Fiji 100 to 40 (and this is probably the hardest match to call).

Then by our maths that gives ladder positions 4 through 10 as: 

* Assumes results as above and includes both GB d Fiji and Fiji d GB for comparison.

These are all educated guesses at sensible final results, and of course Nauru, South Africa and the USA are all aiming to defeat their opponents and finish atop their pools, and if any one of those win their opponent will likely have sufficient percentage to finish 4th overall.  So Ireland, PNG and NZ are looking pretty safe for the semi-finals either way, but if they all win there's going to be one hell of a battle for 4th spot.

Tonga and Great Britain are probably unlikely to get wins big enough to push up to 4th, but the challenge is not impossible.  If Nauru, South Africa or the USA miss out to Fiji, Canada, Great Britain or Tonga one can imagine they will be fairly unimpressed by the nature of the draw, especially the USA having just defeated Canada by a comfortable margin in the end.

The AFL will want to be triple-checking every result before announcing their ladder this Saturday night! ...

Matching Papua New Guinea, a genuine contender to take out this year’s tournament, against India, recovering from a 166 point loss, was always going to produce a certain result; it was just a question of the margin.

The match played out as expected. PNG were quick, skilful and continually managed to get numbers to each contest. The PNG ruckman had the lion’s share of the tap outs, most of which landed cleanly in the hands of a teammate, who worked the ball easily into their Forward 50.

For the first half PNG dominated and took a 123 point lead into the main break. Besides an inaccurate first quarter, PNG otherwise had a near flawless performance, with the ball never in their Defensive 50.

To their credit the Indian players held their heads high at Half Time, but they were clearly being outclassed on the field. Coach Rick Shrowder reminded his players that they had more to offer, encouraging them to see the second half as independent from the first. “We’re starting again. The score is 0-0.”

Shrowder’s motivational speech, coupled with a key change of D’Moore to Full Back did have an effect. Whilst PNG was equally impressive in the second half, India managed an inside Forward 50 and held PNG to five fewer goals than their first two quarters.

The final result was 216 points in PNG’s favour. Both teams next play matches on Saturday; PNG against South Africa in Geelong and India against Pakistan in Cragieburn.

Goals
PNG - Pirika 9, Namete 4, Beno 3, So-ong 3, Johnston 2, Ikupu 2, Yogomin 2, Simon 2, Musi, Wartovo, Siwee, Pena, Agita, Ekari

Best
PNG - Pirika, Simon, Gavuri, Ikupu, Pena, Logo
India - Kailashnathan, D’Moore, Fariduddin, Fernando, Tirkey, Chakraborty

Quarter by Quarter
Quarter Time PNG 8.7 (55) led India 0.0 (0)
Half Time PNG 19.9 (123) led India 0.0 (0)
Three Quarter Time PNG 26.15 (171) led India 0.0 (0)
Final PNG 33.18 (216) defeated India 0.0 (0)  ...

...

Meet the players - Julius Nicklasson (Sweden).

Name :	Julius Niklasson
Club (Home)	Port Malmö Maulers
Club (Other)
Age :	20
Hgt :	6'0"
Pos :	FB, BP
Fave AFL team :	Geelong
Fave AFL player:	Jimmy Bartel
Years playing :	2
How found footy :	PE teacher is the Swedish coach
IC14 Tips
Mens	Swedish Elks
Womens	Canada
Least want to sit beside on plane :	Tony Persson
Favourite Food :	Carbonara
Sporting Idol :	LeBron James
Funniest/embarrassing footy moment :	Not knowing all the rules
Footy highlight :	Debuting for the national team
Simpsons or Futurama	Simsons
Star Wars or Star Trek	Star Wars
Banana or Check-side	Banana
Team mate most likely to become President/PM	Me
Team mate who spends most time in front of the mirror	Erik Vig

Meet the players - Yoshi Harris (Nauru).

Name :	Yoshi Harris
Club (Home)	Magpies
Club (Other)
Age :	20
Hgt :	185 cm
Pos :	Wing, HB
Fave AFL team :	St Kilda
Fave AFL player:	Joel Selwood
Years playing :	6
How found footy :
IC14 Tips
Mens	Nauru
Womens	USA Freedom
Tightest (stingiest) teammate :	Scott Cain (trainer)
Least want to sit beside on plane :	Hestekai Fiolape
Favourite Food :	Sush - specifically at a Sushi Train
Sporting Idol :	Lebron James
Funniest/embarrassing footy moment :	Missed a goal from directly in front 15m out
Footy highlight :
Simpsons or Futurama	Simpsons
Star Wars or Star Trek	Star Wars
Banana or Check-side	Banana
Team mate most likely to become President/PM	Jonas
Team mate who spends most time in front of the mirror	Trent Depaune

Meet the players - Lindsay Kastanek (US Freedom).

Name :	Lindsay Kastanek
Club (Home)	Denver Bulldogs
Age :	30
Hgt :	5'10"
Pos :	Full Forward
Fave AFL team :	Adelaide Crows
Fave AFL player:	Ryan Schoenmakers
Years playing :	4
How found footy :	A girl on the rugby team told me about this better sport. Stole me away.
IC14 Tips
Mens	New Zealand
Womens	USA Freedom ahead of Ireland
Least want to sit beside on plane :	Julie Marks - doesn't stop talking (loudly)
Favourite Food :	Licorice
Sporting Idol :	Birdman
Footy highlight :	USA v Ireland IC11, Great game
Simpsons or Futurama	Simpsons
Star Wars or Star Trek	Star Wars
Banana or Check-side	Banana
Team mate most likely to become President/PM	Emily Reihl
Team mate who spends most time in front of the mirror	Hallie Lee

Meet the players - Jay Levesque (US Revolution).

Name :	Jay Levesque
Club (Home)	Baltimore DC Eagles
Club (Other)
Age :	33
Hgt :	5'10"
Pos :	Ruck rover
Fave AFL team :	Demons
Fave AFL player:	Nate Jones
Years playing :	10
How found footy :	My American brother, Ross, moved to Malmo (Sweden) & started playing (Maulers). I would go to Sweden to visit about 45 days over the summer & learned to play there; for about 3 consecutive summers. The Swedish national coach Daniel McClaer is one of m best friends.
IC14 Tips
Mens	Revos
Womens	Freedom
Least want to sit beside on plane :	Vanica
Favourite Food :	Kebab
Sporting Idol :	Pele
Footy highlight :	Tearing my ACL, MCL & Meniscus 2 months before IC11 + rehabbing to make it back to IC14.
Simpsons or Futurama	Simpsons
Star Wars or Star Trek	Star Wars
Banana or Check-side	Banana
Team mate most likely to become President/PM	Andrew "Tiger" Werner
Team mate who spends most time in front of the mirror	Jay Levesque (Me)